Perspectives on Autism’s Rise

Perspectives on the Rise of Autism

The epidemic rise of Autism demands conversation.  We need to stop its rise…find the cause and overcome its effects.   There are many voices, many perspectives.  Everyone can see that the condition impacts mental health for the autistic but also the care-givers.  The following statement is one of the most logical I’ve seen–and one that points to the need for a clearer scientific evaluation.  Please leave your thoughts in the comment box below.  Let’s peacefully share perspectives.  IMHU does not take a position other than the desire to encourage discussion on important health-related topics using the best of scientific research.–Emma Bragdon, PhD.

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My opening statement to the

U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations

September 9, 2025

Toby Rogers, PhD.

[email protected]

https://substack.com/@tobyrogers

 

Good afternoon Chairman Johnson, Ranking Member Blumenthal, and members of the Permanent Subcommittee:

On July 4, 2015, my then-partner’s son was diagnosed as being on the autism spectrum. I was in a Ph.D. program in Political Economy at the University of Sydney where I had access to almost all current scientific and medical journals. I wanted to better understand what was happening so I went to the CDC’s webpage on the causes of autism. As a Ph.D. student I was trained to focus on primary source documents, so I read all of the references in their footnotes.

To my surprise, I quickly discovered that the CDC’s narrative did not add up:

·       Claims that autism is genetic don’t make sense because autism prevalence was rising too fast — there’s no such thing as a genetic epidemic.

·       Then the CDC blamed valproic acid, a treatment for epilepsy that is contraindicated in pregnancy, and thalidomide, which was never approved for use in the U.S.

·       Finally, the CDC pointed to advanced parental age; but the odds ratios were modest and the increase in the proportion of older parents is insufficient to explain the surge in autism prevalence.

Furthermore, the cost of autism was already in the hundreds of billions of dollars a year in the U.S. and yet government was not responding with a sense of urgency.

I changed my doctoral thesis topic to “The Political Economy of Autism” and spent the next four years reading and analyzing nearly everything that has been written on autism prevalence, causation, and cost.

In 2019, my thesis passed rigorous external peer review. It’s now in the top 10 of the most downloaded doctoral research papers in the history of the University of Sydney.

Since then I’ve continued my research with Children’s Health Defense, as an independent journalist, and as a Fellow at Brownstone Institute.

Here are the facts:

In 1970, the first autism prevalence study in the U.S. found an autism rate of less than 1 in 10,000 children [Treffert, 1970].

According to a study by the EPA [McDonald & Paul, 2010], sometime around 1987, the autism rate in the U.S. began to skyrocket.

The most recent report from the CDC showed that 1 in 31 eight-year-old children in the U.S. in 2022 were on the autism spectrum [Shaw et al. 2025].

That’s a 32,158% increase in the last 52 years.

Two massive studies from the best epidemiologists in California show that changes in diagnostic criteria only explain a small fraction of the rise in autism prevalence [Byrd et al. 2002 and Hertz-Picciotto & Delwiche, 2009].

There are 22 studies that claim that vaccines don’t cause autism. None of these studies have a completely unvaccinated control group. So unfortunately, if you want to understand what’s causing the autism epidemic, these studies are of no use.

Then there are five large genetic research projects — AGRE, SSC, ASC, MSSNG, and SPARK. Together they have produced 501 published papers. The search for “the gene for autism” has consumed over $2.3 billion dollars and researchers have almost nothing to show for it because genes don’t suddenly create epidemics — the human genome just doesn’t change that fast.

Then there are four large epigenetic research projects (so, genes and the environment) — CHARGE, MARBLES, SEED, and EARLI. Combined they’ve produced 437 publications that look at the effects of:

·       air pollution

·       pesticides

·       fluorinated substances

·       PCBs

·       nutritional factors

·       flame retardants

·       maternal metabolic conditions [obesity and diabetes]; and

·       volatile organic compounds.

None of these studies control for vaccines as a possible covariate or confounder, so it’s impossible to know the true impact of these variables.

The critical missing piece in autism research is vaccinated vs. unvaccinated studies.

Thankfully there are now six good studies that we can rely on. Unfortunately, these studies have been systematically suppressed and ignored by the mainstream media and the medical establishment.

Two studies by Gallagher and Goodman [2008 & 2010] show that the birth dose of the hepatitis B vaccine significantly increases autism risk.

Three studies by Anthony Mawson (2017a, 2017b, and 2025) confirm that vaccination increases the odds of developing autism by at least 4.2-fold.

Preterm birth, coupled with vaccination increases the odds of neurodevelopmental disability by more than 12-fold compared to preterm birth without vaccination [Mawson et al. 2017b].

And finally, a study by Hooker & Miller, published in 2021, found that:

·       Vaccination increases autism risk 5-fold.

·       Vaccination in the absence of breastfeeding increases autism risk 12.5-fold.

·       Vaccination in addition to C-section birth increases autism risk 18.7-fold.

After conducting this systematic review of 1,000 studies my belief is that the autism and chronic disease epidemics are primarily caused by toxicants — mostly from vaccines and about a dozen additional toxicants. If we stop exposing children to these hazards in the first place that would stop the epidemics of chronic illness in children. Now we must summon the political will to act.

Thank you.